ZENO'S COFFEEHOUSE Results #2
The Second Coffeehouse Challenge
Here's the original problem, followed by the results. Enjoy!
Suppose that during your visit to Zeno's two mysterious boxes, A and B, are placed before you; A is transparent and B is opaque. You are told that A contains $10,000, and you can see that A holds a bunch of $100 bills. You are also told that B contains either nothing or 1 million dollars! You are asked to make a choice; choose either
1.Box B only; or
2.Both Box A and Box B.
You smile. However, before you choose, you are told, and you are to assume correctly, that a SUPERPREDICTOR machine has been installed at Zeno's, a device which analyzes the brains of of those who are offered such a choice, and what the machine predicts is that those who choose Box B only will win $1million, and that those who
choose both boxes will win $10,000 only. You inquire as to the record so
You are informed, correctly, that 1000 other Zeno patrons have been given, and have made, a choice, and all have been subject to the SUPERPREDICTOR, as have you. Further, you learn that all visitors who chose 2---700, in fact---received only $10,000, the contents of Box A, for B was empty. However, all those 300 visitors who chose 1, Box B only, received $1million! What a machine!
Given this information, you are asked to deliberate and decide:
Choice 1, or
Why?Which is the more rational?
98 entries were received at Zeno's
40 visitors voted for 1, Box B only---several calculated the favorable inductive odds!
58 visitors went for 2, both boxes---many said that since the contents of both boxes are already in place, only a fool would chance 1! HHmmm...40 fools?